Should we really be that surprised???

Every once in a while, it feels like we have the potential for real follow through on the downside. Do any of us truly believe it though, that it could actually happen? I do, but I'd still be shocked if it actually did happen. It's more like faith (as well as probabilities and statistics). I mean, it has to eventually happen, right?

Or is this time really different? Does the bull ever die, or even pullback 5% for that matter? "This time is different' has been said numerous times, but has Always eventually been proven wrong.

After hitting early lows this morning, the market got bid back up like it always seems to do. I mean seriously, when we finally do have follow through, will any bears actually make money, as in, will they actually hold for the big move? I'm sure many stubborn bears would just be happy to lessen the loss or break even on mistimed trades that were initiated days, weeks, or god forbid, months ago.

New bears will likely profit way too early on any decent downticks, and can anyone blame them? By "holding" you would've given up 60 points from today's low to today's close on NDX (Nasdaq-100) for example.

A new position I got into yesterday for example was a 5900 Nasdaq-100 (NQ) Futures put option (Sept expiration) when the NDX was trading around 5940. Needless to say, that position looked like crap when the NDX shot up another 30 points on the day.

I ended up making a little off it after the market closed when it tagged 5900 (after hours yesterday). Long story short, I left 40 points on the table (assuming I would've closed this morning) but by the end of the day, closing at 5900 proved to be a good move, as I can now get back in cheaper (20 points higher and another day of decay).

I basically mention this because I do believe we see 5600; in fact, I believe we could even see 5400 by the time that option expires mid September. Even with that belief, I find it hard not to take some off when any decent down move comes my way as it almost seems guaranteed not to last. More likely than not (nearly 100% with this market) I'd be able to reload at a lower price just hours or maybe a day later.

So why don't I just go long? I wish I did, months ago, hell, even weeks ago, but not today. Oh no, not today... we're close, I can feel it, or maybe it's just "faith". Of course we'll float up, but when the day comes, and follow through arrives, there will be weeks, maybe months worth of profits in a relatively short time.

Full Disclosure: I hold actual NQ Futures contracts short as my "core position" and am patiently, ever so patiently waiting for 5400-5600 to close them. Slowly adding and closing Put options in the mean time.